The Chickenshit Club by Jesse Eisinger (pg. 201)

A top assistant prosecutor at the Southern District of New York or Main Justice today makes around $150,000 a year. In 2016 the government scale topped out at $160,300. A top partner at a good firm can easily make $3 million to $4 million a year. In the meantime, the cost of living in the nation’s most coveted and powerful cities has skyrocketed. A prosecutor’s salary has become more difficult to live on, while in private practice a partner’s income has dramatically outpaced inflation.

The Chickenshit Club by Jesse Eisinger (pg. 199)

During settlement negotiations, the prosecutors want to appear tough to the defense lawyers on the other side of the table. They want to dazzle them with their knowledge of legal precedent, mastery of details, and bargaining skills. But young prosecutors also want their adversaries to imagine them as future partners. They want to demonstrate that they are people of proportion.

The Chickenshit Club by Jesse Eisinger (pg. 193)

A symbiotic relationship developed between Big Law and the Department of Justice. The way government prosecuted corporate crime helped transform how private firms conducted their practice and their business. Big law firms in turn began to change how the government approached corporate investigations and prosecutions. The Department of Justice became a way station, a post-(law) doctorate course of study, a résumé builder for future partners at prestigious law firms.

Another Good Time to Add to Precious Metals

I have written bullishly many times fundamentally about the precious metals complex, but I have only written bullishly twice before on the technical outlook.

One was on 5/31/19, where I wrote http://theboywhocriedgold.com/is-this-it/

The other was on 10/24/19, where I wrote http://theboywhocriedgold.com/the-next-leg-in-gold-possibly-confirmed/

From 5/31/19-9/4/19, Gold would move from ~$1,290 to ~$1,550. ~20%

From 10/24/19-1/8/19, Gold would move from ~$1,490 to ~$1,600. ~7%

I must admit my second call was a bit pre-mature as gold did not breakout immediately after the post. Red vertical lines mark post dates.

I believe it is likely that we either breakout before February 20, or we finish filling out the larger triangle and breakout closer to March 12.

As always, the biggest winning trades will come from the miners and silver.

I will use the first move as reference because of not only ease, but since I believe this move will more likely mirror the first than the second.

From 5/31/19-9/4/19…

Gold Miners (GDX) would move from ~$21.00 to ~$30.50. ~45%

Silver Miners (SIL) would move from ~$22.50 to ~$31.50. ~40%

Silver would move from ~$14.50 to ~$19.00. ~31%

Fundamental catalysts this time?

  1. Coronavirus!
  2. Federal Reserve Incompetence.
  3. Interest Rates

These are new deaths each day reported out of China. Statistics of all kinds out of China are always to be looked at with skepticism. I am not going to get into it, but these numbers are likely significantly lower than the truth. The effects of fear would be enough to hurt an economy as people would be more prone to staying in, but large cities are on lockdown anyways. I do not yet have a motive attributed to portraying the spike in deaths.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

Below, is the Federal Reserve balance sheet. It grows when the Fed buys assets in the market. They do this to inject liquidity and relieve stress in financial markets. What you need to know is when that line is going up it is bullish for gold. It suggests risky times may be near, and at the least, it suggests money creation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

Lastly, gold competes with bonds. Gold does not pay interest so when interest rates fall it is a tailwind for gold. The US 30-year yield broke down from a longer term triangle.

I zoomed in to show that I envision another such event. If you look closely you will see the head and shoulders technical pattern.

In conclusion, draw your lines. We will know if gold and the precious metals complex is on the move upward again with a decisive break of $1,585. A break below 2% on the US 30-year treasury yield could be seen as a lead or confirmation of the move.

Other markets to watch to confirm the move.

A breakdown above $7 on the Yuan. Proxy for trade war and now coronavirus.

A failed breakdown at $110 for the Yen. Proxy for risk-on/risk-off.

A breakout above $10,500 on bitcoin. Proxy for global liquidity.

For reference…

Gold Miners (GDX)

SIlver Miners (SIL)

Silver

The Chickenshit Club by Jesse Eisinger (pg. 167)

K. Sabeel Raman, a scholar at Brooklyn Law School, writes:

Successive waves of liberal governance reform–from the Clinton administration’s “reinventing government” initiative, to the Obama administration’s emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and transparency–share a common problem: they prioritize “good” government over “democratic” government. This liberal vision of governance reform does not address the root challenge raised by critics on both the left and right today: the fear that government is ineffective, unresponsive, or unduly influenced by business and economic elites.”

The Chickenshit Club by Jesse Eisinger (pg. 156)

White-collar prosecutions suffered from not just a leadership vacuum but also a resource drain. During the years after 9/11, the Department of Justice took money and people away form white-collar investigations, and that shift continued through Gonzales’s tenure. The FBI transformed from a domestic investigative body to an international intelligence agency, focused primarily on terrorism.

The Chickenshit Club by Jesse Eisinger (pg. 130)

Aggressive prosecutors, however, believe that the practice of firms underwriting legal fees is a form of hush money. Former deputy attorney general Larry Thompson told me, “If you sit there and think these corporations are paying for the employees’ choice of lawyer, and not sometimes simply to keep the employees quiet, then you believe in the tooth fairy.”