China launches fleet of electric buses the size of the entire London bus fleet every month
Resource bull markets cause the bear and vice versa
This bull is different due to social media. Don’t need to wait for investment banks
New investors are more prone to the narrative than to the facts
Every generation has to get their ass kicked
You will have another chance to buy things cheap
Usually in resource bull markets. The best of the best move, then best of the rest, then single asset companies, and then penny dreadfuls. This time we went from best of the best to penny dreadfuls.
Bernard Baruch – The only guy who bought the bottom and sold the top is a liar
When you are old there is no need to do things that you do not understand.
Should always define how to declare victory or defeat in advance of placing the trade.
If the price of something doubles and nothing changes then by definition it is half as attractive.
Ask management how they will they convey value to the market and what it will cost. If they don’t have an answer, then walk away.
When the reason to own a stock goes away, the stock goes away irrespective of the price. Hope is not an investment strategy.
Number of speculations you own should correspond to the number of hours of work you are willing to do in a month.
Rick Rule is confused why someone will spend more time comparing tuna can facts than stock due diligence.
Buy cheap, hated, and already in an uptrend.
Uranium has an institutional memory.
2008/2009 – Financial Crisis causes recession. Leads to expansionary fiscal/monetary policy to boost economy.
2020 – Pandemic brings on government lockdowns which causes recession. Leads to expansionary fiscal/monetary policy to provide liquidity.
Insolvency crisis is next
Asset inflation not consumer inflation because money creation has gone to the banks and not the average person.
To have an alternative to USD you need a large alternative otherwise currencies will appreciate too much.
Must hope American ingenuity/entrepreneurship outweighs the stupidity of Washington.
More fragmentation of political parties to come.
Royalty companies at the end of the cycle to protect cash flows.
Sign of the late innings of the resource cycle is when companies can raise way more than they should be able to
Pandemic M/A slowed down due to inability to travel and get boots on the ground
Commodity prices always oscillate around the cost of production
Last gold peak there were 35 gold stock funds
Energy used to be a third of the S and P 500 now its 2.5%
Mining is a horrible business because the easy deposits have been found
Be right, sit tight
Margin debt all time high
With 50/50 Senate can’t lose your party, so extreme bills won’t pass
Interest, transfer payments, and military are 150% tax revenue
Risk is permanent loss. Volatility is temporary loss.
Easier to take Fed at word when they say rates will stay low than if they were to say rates will rise.
Money is store of value. Currency is not.
This is the first global gold rush. 2/3rds of the world could not buy in the 70s
You have to be careful when people are making money out of proportion to their ability.
Woke Culture – I love it when they arrest my enemies but then they came for me.
Bitcoin is not digital gold. Gold is not physical bitcoin.
People want 140 characters with the answer
Top 7 mining companies have copper and nickel as 2 of top 3 priorities
Governments hate losing monopolies.
Gold becomes unaffordable so inflows spill to silver.
Oil is dead when the US leaves the middle east.
Crypto then commodities then emerging markets
India
Dollar 80% trade and 25% GDP
Treasury Yellen is symbolic of the marriage between fiscal and monetary policy
A bubble is a bull market in which you don’t have a position
When things go wrong with a junior exploration play, sell.
Royalty is % revenue
Stream is % rock
Be ready to pivot this year
Time to take personal control of your money
The greatest way to create wealth is to make a concentrated bet. The greatest way to lose that wealth is to never hedge out.
Any contrarian ultimately wants to be in the consensus.
Don’t invest in what you want to happen.
Agriculture is a commodity less sensitive to recession because people need to eat.
Each asset class has its own DNA of volatility.
Study the 2 sigma vol of what you own
Public invests from the rear view mirror
JPM keeps 90 cents of every dollar they steal.
Holding dollars is like buying a ticket on the titanic after it hit the iceberg.
