Markets have a funny way of hurting as many people as possible. I will get a page up shortly on why recession is imminent and why this bear market is short in the tooth, but assuming that recession is upon us, the jobs “blowout” is exactly the type of data that will ignite some short term market strength. If past is prologue, then today’s job report may be the perfect catalyst for a sucker’s rally.
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Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 312,000 in December. Consensus expectation was for a rise of about 176,000 jobs.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Largest month over month winner in job growth goes to the below average wage paying jobs within “Leisure and Hospitality.”
More citizens needing multiple jobs is not a sign of economic strength. It is a potential sign that the consumer is so strapped with rising costs of living, rising costs of debt, and the reverse wealth effect of falling stocks causing citizens to desperately seek more income.
As one can see from studying the above chart, monthly changes in non-farm payroll jobs are quite volatile. Simplistically, the thing that is standing out to me is that the last time we had a spike above this December one was right after the February crash. As we all know, we also just had a December crash. Again, if past is prologue, then a rally may be upon us.
To further support current market sentiment and this sucker’s rally, Kudlow said today that there is “No recession in sight,” so obviously we’re safe, but more importantly we had some dovish speech from Powell.
http://bloomberg.com/gadfly/ http://tinyurl.com/y8em3mvb
Time will tell what the market deciphers of this news. Resistance levels to watch on the S&P 500 include: 2550 (whole number), 2588 (3/19/18 bottom), 2600 (whole number), 2619 (2/5/18 bottom, 11/19 bottom, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current move since 12/3/18).
